Links to Reality

As usual Brin is spot on and worth the read

http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2008/09/scary-stuff-political-lamp-is-lit.html


Below a link to Russ Daggats Blog (daggat blog) for Sept 23, 2008 in it he includes a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders from Warren Buffet from 2002. It describes the "derivatives and the trading activities that go with them: We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system."
http://daggatt.blogspot.com/2008/09/financial-weapons-of-mass-destruction.html prescient

Issues over the Horizon

http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/summer2008/horizon.html

 

(the following lifted from the Rand website linked above)

Some interesting perspectives on the future, worth a read.

Eleven Emerging Challenges

To celebrate the 60th Anniversary of the RAND Corporation and to uphold its tradition of taking on the big issues of tomorrow, a call went out to all RAND staff around the world, inviting them to propose essays on “important policy issues not currently receiving the attention they deserve in the public debate” — issues, in other words, that might be on the back burner today but will likely become front-burner issues within the next five years.

More than 100 issues were raised. The final product: the 11 essays published here. These were selected either because they highlight major public policy problems that have eluded the mainstream media radar or because they point toward major public policy solutions that have been likewise overlooked — or both.

Despite the wide range of topics, from corporate malfeasance to antimicrobial resistance, common themes emerge. The biggest one is the shaky financial footing that threatens to undermine several pillars of the public interest: Medicare, Social Security, roads, bridges, water systems, power grids, elections, military operations, diplomatic endeavors, and public health. At the same time, there are national and global reasons for hope. There is even a concluding vision of a new and better form of statecraft.

Readers might be tempted to connect the issues outlined here with those being debated on the U.S. presidential campaign trail, but that is not the intent. Our goal is to raise public awareness of several salient issues that will likely grow in prominence regardless of the election outcome.

—John Godges

China outsourcing no longer cheap

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/11/smallbusiness/china_no_longer_cheap.fsb/index.htm

 

check this out...just is reinforcing some of what am thinking about lately

Questionable Answers....

My thinking lately has been on the price of fuel. I wrote earlier in this blog that I thought China had come to the manufacturing game too late. It should be able to supply itself with consumer goods. But its distance from the US markets could make the cost of transporting goods the prohibitive portion of the total cost. Also that in the US, a regional manufacturing paradigm may have to come into being. Transportation will become the deciding factor of the logistics of distribution.
I may be simplifying this a little but...it is something to think about...does this fuel increase make the resurgence of manufacturing in the US doable in the future?

One more thing on the China juggernaut. The ignored fact that they are degrading their environment on an unprecedented scale. This neglect will have to be faced in the near future. I do not believe that there is a river in China now that does not dry up at some time in the year. The waters are very polluted.

China's manufacturing has been growing a conservative 10% a year. This growth has fueled a middle class growth with expectations of a clean, healthy environment (clean air, clean water, proper disposal of toxic wastes) for their families to be raised in. It is this middle class that will force the Government to face the cleanup issues in the near future. This cleanup will be expensive and may slow down the growth curve we are seeing now.

Windy Detritus

For some reason I started thinking of kites this morning...could be the closeness of March...cannot be that it was windy...I just remember the excitement of picking out the special one, a dragon or lion, some beasty that would surely scare the wind gods into carrying my kite aloft...then of putting together the paper, wood, string construct...being too excited to put a tail on and running outside with my brother and sisters, each with their own kite, each kite a different mythological beast...to try them out...laying the kite on the ground and spooling out string until 10 to 15 feet separated my from my kite...everyone else was busy with their kites...so at first we would each drag around our kites trying to get them to fly...all of us breathlessly running, dragging kites on the ground in hope of them catching some wind and flying...of course this never worked...eventually we would make tails and work together...stand in the pasture waiting for wind...one holding the kite the other with the string...coolness of the spring day nipping our fingers...cheeks red...impatient with the wind gods and their teasingly short gusts...hours were spent...the thrill of getting one kite airborne was the victory that we all were waiting for...

 

...so it was not that it was windy this morning...it was that I was captured for a moment by simpler times...where success was measured by the amount of fun was generated...how do we measure success now? I know for a fact that I do not use a fun factor...money or position seem to have become our standards for success...wonder what life would be like if we continued to measure our successes by the fun factor?

Super Bowl Sunday...

Yes, I did end up at McGuires for the Super Bowl. I had debated whether to go down there or not to watch the game. I do have a history of when watching games that I have a favorite in, that the team I like loses. I came to the conclusion that this attitude was absurd. To think that I have any influence on events like these just by viewing them on tv would be the height of that absurdity. Making me God like in a twisted sort of way.

I know for a fact that I am not a God. So this is a assinine viewpoint.

I got to McGuires after 4 so the game was well under way. I think of the dozen or so people there, 9 favored NYG to win and only 3 for NE. There is an underdog underground in America. We love winners. We worship perfection. Yet the majority in that bar were pulling for the underdog. Perhaps it is not so much an underdog thing as an anti-hubris factor. When winning becomes the norm (and seemingly easy) for a team/person/country...am thinking we all have that kernel of doubt that winning always is a good thing...that they should be brought down a notch, that losing would actually be a good thing for them...the building character thing. I do not know.

This was a game that will for some time be the yardstick to measure future Super Bowls against.

So...I did watch the game. Yes, the team I wanted to win, lost. These facts are indesputable.

What now?

I AM THE GREAT AND TERRIBLE OZ!!!

Hawking Your Where's....

How is everyone this fine cold cold morning...there is a chill factor without there even being a wind...seems the colder it gets...the more I think of warm weather...and that lets me segue into a bubble of remembrance that popped into my pea brain this morning on the way to work...it was spring and for some reason I let my brother talk me into going and photographing a hawks nest with chicks...it was in the High Valley Ranch area north of Selah...as teens we had spent many a summer day up there hunting varmints and drinking beer...the High Valley is high desert steppes...low tuft grasses, bunch grass, sage brush, wild flowers, scrub willows...and an infinite crop of rocks to stumble over that also morph into cliffs and outcroppings...a seemingly constant wind blows across it...we drove as close to the nest as possible and still had a mile to walk to get to it...like I said it was spring...so the wild flowers were in bloom and the steppes were a riot of colors...yellows, purples, blues, gold's, reds...not mixed together but each flower species would be grouped...a patchwork quilt of color...with some intermingling on the edges...the light breeze was cool...we were wearing light jackets over long-sleeved shirts...low topped tennis shoes had me worried about sprains...the ground was littered with rocks and boulders and I have an aversion to sprains...we came to the place where the hawks nest was...we were at the top of a cliff...and after a little searching we found the nest with the chicks...the mother hawk flew off when we were trying to take pictures from above...after that we decided to look at the nest from the bottom of the cliff and started south along the top...the cliff petered out about a hundred yards on...to where we could just step off and reverse our course back to be below the nest...I stepped onto a boulder and then to the ground...at that point the distinctive sound of a rattlers warning could be heard...I do not remember moving...but instantly found myself several feet from where I heard the warning sound...my brother was still atop the boulder...we poked around a bit and found a 6" baby rattler was making the sound...now forewarned we gingerly made our way along the bottom of the cliff...trying to walk on tops of boulders where possible...as we move along the cliff face another warning sounded and we urgently looked around our feet...until I figured out that the rattling was not coming from the ground...it was coming from the cliff face...almost directly in front of me was a two inch wide crack in the cliff...and in that crack were two small rattlers letting me know that I was too close...sometimes nature just is too close for comfort...we did continue on and get a look at the nest from below...but were not happy about the low topped tennies we were wearing...we heard warnings several more times as we retreated...and were very happy to reach the place where we had originally stepped into this snake pit...the whole way back to the rig I was thinking of what could have happened if either one of us had been bitten...I guess it would have just made a story with a different ending...sorry for the detour into the mundane.

Cold Cold Heart...

It is cold here this morning...I am not a winter type person...would rather be snuggled in bed...under covers...and all that that implies...something about heat that attracts me...sun on my skin...beads of sweat rolling down my body...ice cold drink near by...sometimes when working in the yard..a kind of heat stupor overtakes me and time ceases to exist...movements are slow and deliberate...thinking is a minimalist step by step thing...Zen living...in the now...am wondering how close to heatstroke I am when this happens...but I love the way heat saturates the body...filling it with a reptilian kind of satisfaction of absorbing a form of cosmic nourishment...life...

Terminal Suspect

Nothing except work going on here...the Pacific Institute classes were interesting...a goal setting...visualizing...affirmation kind of toolset was presented to us...did not realize how much I used the visualize part (darts)...have not been good at goal setting or affirmation parts...can see the pluses...can see it making a difference in how I approach the world...most changes are meant to be internal on the self improvement scope...I am responsible for my own happiness...improve myself and improve the world around me...making this an 'all about me' concept...my shallowness embraces it...after all it is all about me...right...at least the right to pursue happiness...I am being flippant...which is a defense mechanism...but I can see a path...and do want to be happy and this does meld well with my own Zen...Buddhist...deistic...agnostic...atheistic...mélange of conflicting beliefs...which I don't think is all that different really than most other people...if they were to actually examine their witches brew of beliefs with an open mind...they too would see the conflicts and inconsistencies in their own internal dialogue...anyway...after that rambling and confusing walk through my psyche...which is neither here nor there...just a way to get to my original goal...I come to the important question...do you think these pants make my bum look too big?

Back to Work

Sometimes I think I should not take off any days from work. It seems inevitable that the time off does not refresh me or make me 'want' to go back to work. It instead makes me lazier than I already am. Going back to work becomes a burden. Taking time away from important tasks like reading, napping or just in general slothliness...sweats replacing work clothes as attire of the day...being able to opt out on the shaving routine...snacking on leftover xmas sweets...eating only food that is guaranteed to increase my roundness factor...crumbs stuck to the front of my well worn, wrinkled and stained sweatshirt could give clues to a CSI team as to my last 24 hours of slovenly behavior...all this amidst the fear of having to answer the door to a relative or friend, while looking like an escapee from a rehab facility...one of those places where you hear..."Hi, my name is Rick and I am addicted to junk food." or, "Hello, my name is Rick and my exercise routine consists of walking briskly from the couch to the refrigerator and back, but only during commercials or timeouts."...yea...one of those places...hmmmmm.....you know...maybe I should go to a rehab center...I could meet some totally screwed up pop diva...fall into some kind of mutual enabling love...marry her...then divorce her and get $20000 a week for support...Hey!...that is a great idea...after I finish this I am taking a month off...I have a plan...now where did I put those Cheetos?

Road to Melancholy...

I ended up at McG's last night...stopped on the way home to pick up a Cobb salad from Red Robin for Chris...I ordered a pot roast sandwich for me (don't bother...not worth it)...had a drink while waiting...got home...tried to eat the sandwich and threw half of it away...decided to go and practice darts (my euphemism for drink...yeah...maybe I do have a problem)...when I got there the bird was still in the dart room...maybe I am just shallow (well...ok...that is a given) but I do not like having that cage in the dart room...anyway...played some darts with a young kid that that Shannon gal is dating...he was tatted on his neck and arms...reminded me of one of Ray Bradbury's books, a collection of short stories, The Illustrated Man...I will always remember that book because the last story is such a heart-breaker...a tragedy that makes my stomach want to empty...leaves me with a hollow feeling...like now...even to revisit it in memory...sorry...sad tangents should be banned...ok...segue into music...one of the salesmen came in with a CD...Modest Mouse...listening to it now...alternative sound...though have been noticing that the alternative sound is or has moved to an English music hall sound...similar to early Beatles...not copies...just bits and pieces that are like an homage to the past...or it could be that I have lived so long that all music is beginning to sound the same...hope not on that latter thought...life would start to become boring...living and listening to life as reruns...egad...again...melancholy...so be it...seems to be my path today...

JUST PASSING TIME

At what pace...

Do we run this race?

How do we measure...

Our daily pleasure?

 

We crash through minutes

And wade through hours

To complete a day

We ignore the flowers

 

What do we spend...

With really close friends?

How do we find...

Enough time?

 

Conversations are hurried

Feelings are buried

How do we live so long?

And still do so much wrong?